Many have noticed how, after the “celebration” of the Baptism of Kyivan Rus’-Ukraine, ROC agents in Ukraine kept a low profile, minimizing any statements and various populist rallies. But it was obvious that this was just a pause, not surrender.
It is needed to assess the results achieved by all structural units before and after the “celebration” and the effectiveness of their certain actions, and to draft an action plan for Ukraine’s Independence Day. This is due to the fact that, in fact, despite desperate attempts of all pro-Russian news resources in Ukraine, including those directly controlled by the ROCinU and the pro-Russian OPZZh party, to convince their viewers and readers that the latest effort was a success, it actually wasn’t.
It was no success because the ROCinU failed to fulfill the plan of its Moscow handlers to the full, which would be to disrupt the Ukraine visit of Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew. It was no success because the rally of ROCinU believers organized in Kyiv actually turned out to be even smaller than seen in previous years (that’s if we take the actual numbers, not those inflated by ROCinU). It was no success because parishioners continue to shift away from the ROCinU and for the ROC branch in Ukraine it’s becoming more and more difficult to reverse the process.
It is for this reason that the ROCinU chose a slightly different tactic: if they failed in disrupting the visit of the Ecumenical Patriarch, then it should be spoiled and compromised. It’s for this purpose that the Myriany NGO was set up, especially to be engaged in various acts of provocation. I can find no other name for them as ROCinU’s combat laymen (Myriany translates as Laymen – ed.). It was they who sent a letter, which received wide coverage by the mentioned platforms, to the Ecumenical Patriarch demanding that they have a meeting immediately upon his arrival. Again – they wrote a letter, issuing a DEMAND.
You should agree that a nonprofit with no official status in the church world sending such an appeal to the Ecumenical Patriarch is at least unacceptable. But there’s more.
The Myriany leadership has called on all adherents to a rally on August 21 outside Parliament where the Ecumenical Patriarch will be meeting with its Chairman. The rally aims to show the Verkhovna Rada Speaker who the ROCinU two weeks ago cursed and told not to come to Ukraine. They seek to claim that they are a huge “canonical” Church, which is being “oppressed” by the OCU and the incumbent government.
Actually, the idea and goals the Myriany gang pursues are more than obvious. The organization has already proved more than once that it is able to gather crowded rallies. And the fact that a large mass of people will come to the square outside the Verkhovna Rada on August 21 is undeniable. The question is how far this mass will go and how far the ROCinU will go in relation to their parishioners?
After all, when the Ecumenical Patriarch arrives in the Verkhovna Rada, he clearly won’t be willing to change his schedule and meet anyone who enjoys no official status or acts as an obviously provocateur. And then a completely unpredictable scenario could be launched.
The first is the storming of Parliament, even if it’s a staged show. But the very pushing, screaming and howling, and possibly setting out some smoke bombs and clashing with law enforcement would not be the best background to Bartholomew’s visit to the Verkhovna Rada. And I’m sure it will be covered as widely as possible – and not only by ROCinU or politically pro-Russian outlets from the fringe but also by some adequate Ukrainian media platforms. After all, such pictures and videos will pump up TV channels’ ratings. Unfortunately, sometimes even the patriotic media act extremely unpatriotically, in the pursuit of higher ratings.
The second scenario is much more dangerous. After all, the ROCinU could in fact carry out an attack on Miryany activists – right on that day and right outside Parliament. This could be a bag of explosives and shrapnel thrown into a crowd from some passing car or something like that… In any case, the picture will easily spoil the impression of the Ecumenical Patriarch’s visit.
In fact, it is difficult to predict which scenario will be activated. Actually, the ROCinU may have others in store. But it is obvious that Russia, which is losing its hybrid war on all fronts, including the information war, will experience indescribable pain in this important week of August.
It is a pain from the fact that Ukraine will be celebrating the 30th anniversary of its Independence. It is pain from seeing officials from dozens of countries gathering in Ukraine for the Crimea Platform inaugural summit to discuss ways to put an end to the occupation of Ukrainian Crimea by Russian invaders. It is pain from realizing that Ukraine, against the background of celebrating its state independence, as a symbol, will receive the highest guest who gave our church independence.
So in an attack of such terrible despair, Moscow handlers could do anything and give their puppets in Ukraine a terrifying, inhumane order.
Alexander Kovalenko is a Ukrainian expert
