This week saw a series of developments that just can’t be ignored. It’s a sequence that clearly threatens the stability of the entire Balkan region.
First of all, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced his intention to raise the issue of purchasing another batch of Russian weaponry, this time 12 fighter jets and at least five Mi-35 attack helicopters.
Almost simultaneously, legislators with the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, which is part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, voted to secede from the Bosnian armed forces, judiciary, and tax system. The leader of the Bosnian Serbs’ ruling coalition, Milorad Dodik, said it was the moment freedom was won for the Republika Srpska.
The step is an immediate threat to the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially given Dodik’s intention to roll back all post-war reforms and return to the 1995 constitution.
It is important to note here that the move came following Dodik’s visit to Russia where he met with Vladimir Putin on December 2. Right after Dodik’s visit, Russian Orthodox Church officials representing a “church diplomacy” department, also visited the region.
In this regard it should be recalled that in the Balkans, the religious factor plays a crucial role in destabilizing the region, being no less important than Russia’s military or political support for its puppets.
For example, Montenegro had long been destabilized through both Russian intelligence assets, the so-called agents of influence who pursued violent plots (including a botched coup in 2016, engineered by Russia’s GRU military intelligence) and provocative narratives circulated by the Serbian Orthodox Church.
By the way, mass protests in Montenegro (2019-2020) were supervised by SOC clerics, who, in turn, maintained close contact with Russian security operatives. It was by this scenario masterminded by Moscow that Montenegro was being destabilized. Since then, in expert circles, the “Montenegrin scenario” title stuck to this type of malign plots orchestrated by outside forces.
What we’re now observing in the Balkans throughout this year appears to be a comprehensive effort to escalate the situation. The peak episode came in September when the Serbian side went for outright provocations in Kosovo, while Russian assets were deployed en masse in the border areas.
With Moscow’s support and approval, Belgrade is destabilizing the Balkans along a number of tracks. They target Montenegro, Kosovo, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbians, or rather their Moscow handlers, test their neighbors in search of the most vulnerable spots, which is set to be followed by an attack – media, political, or even military one.
Whatever the ultimate method of sowing instability, it’s obvious that the new Russian arms supplies to Serbia, as well as the continuous presence of Kremlin assets on the ground, both civilians and clergymen, suggest further plans to inevitably opt for a force scenario, which will allow the Kremlin to address a range of geopolitical issues.
